MARKET EVENT: October 2026 FOMC Hike Expectations [ONGOING] | IMPACT: BEARISH | SUMMARY: Market-implied odds of a 25bp October 2026 Fed hike have surged to 65% on hot activity, oil-linked inflation, and hawkish guidance, raising risk of further dollar and front-end yield strength while making a fully priced hike vulnerable to a relief rally if the Fed avoids signaling additional tightening.